Rainian House of Councillors election, 2017
4.42%; 12,484,859 votes) | image2 = Clarkson_profile.jpg | size2 = 114px | colour2 = 00529F | leader2 = Andrew Clarkson | party2 = National Union | alliance2 = | home_state2 = | running_mate2 = | electoral_vote2 = | delegate_count2 = | states_carried2 = | leader_since2 = 2008 | leaders_seat2 = Calgary Heritage | last_election2 = | seats_before2 = 118 | seats_needed2 = | seats2 = 70 | seats_after2 = | seat_change2 = 48 | popular_vote2 = 3,039,294 | percentage2 = 24.34% | swing2 = 17.77% | image1 = Llewellwyn inaugaration.jpg | size1 = 107px | colour1 = E60000 | candidate1 = | leader1 = Alexander Llewellwyn | party1 = Labour | alliance1 = | home_state1 = | running_mate1 = | electoral_vote1 = | delegate_count1 = | states_carried1 = | leader_since1 = 2017 | leaders_seat1 = Vancouver West | last_election1 = | seats_before1 = 98 | seats_needed1 = | seats1 = 127 | seats_after1 = | seat_change1 = 29 | popular_vote1 = 5,485,370 | percentage1 = 43.94% | swing1 = 8.89% | image5 = Frank Jackson.jpg | size5 = 105px | colour5 = 90EE90 | leader5 = Rhondri Mears | party5 = Social Credit | alliance5 = | home_state5 = | running_mate5 = | electoral_vote5 = | delegate_count5 = | states_carried5 = | leader_since5 = 2017 | leaders_seat5 = Portland North (Lost seat) | last_election5 = | seats_before5 = 21 | seats_needed5 = | seats5 = 1 | seats_after5 = | seat_change5 = 20 | popular_vote5 = 440,354 | percentage5 = 3.53% | swing5 = 3.98% | image3 = Faulkner.jpg | size3 = 110px | colour3 = FDC400 | leader3 = Nicole Faulkner | party3 = Reform | alliance3 = | home_state3 = | running_mate3 = | electoral_vote3 = | delegate_count3 = | states_carried3 = | leader_since3 = 2014 | leaders_seat3 = Montana | last_election3 = | seats_before3 = 16 | seats_needed3 = | seats3 = 54 | seats_after3 = | seat_change3 = 38 | popular_vote3 = 2,353,201 | percentage3 = 18.85% | swing3 = 12.91% | image4 = Yasmin Casimir.jpg | size4 = 107px | colour4 = 01954B | leader4 = Yasmin Casimir | party4 = Green-Left Movement | alliance4 = | home_state4 = | running_mate4 = | electoral_vote4 = | delegate_count4 = | states_carried4 = | leader_since4 = 2010 | leaders_seat4 = PR | last_election4 = | seats_before4 = 13 | seats_needed4 = | seats4 = 14 | seats_after4 = | seat_change4 = 1 | popular_vote4 = 607,514 | percentage4 = 4.87% | swing4 = 0.12% | poll1_date = | poll1_source = | poll1_nominee1 = | poll1_party1 = | poll1_nominee2 = | poll1_party2 = | poll2_date = | poll2_source = | poll2_nominee1 = | poll2_party1 = | poll2_nominee2 = | poll2_party2 = | 1blank = | 1data1 = | 1data2 = | 2blank = | 2data1 = | 2data2 = | map_image = Rainier_2017_map.png | map_size = | map_alt = | map = | map_caption = | title = | before_election = | before_party = | posttitle = | after_election = | after_party = }} In 2017 the Commonwealth of Rainier held a House of Councillors election Voting took place in all constituencies of Rainier – 118 single-member constituencies and 148 from 12 proportional blocks – in order to elect all 266 members of the House of Councillors. The date of the election was the 24th August, held four years after the previous election. In May 2017 Prime Minister Andrew Clarkson requested to President Nigel Elystan to dissolve the House of Councillors on the 24th August 2017. The campaign began in July 2017 with the National Union Party, the senior party in the then with the Social Credit party who were together defending a majority from the opposition Labour party. Other parties involved in the campaign included the Green-Left Movement and Reform party. The incumbent Clarkson government had suffered from low polling in its second term especially following the Cash-for-Votes scandal, leading many to see the Labour party, led by Alexander Llewellwyn, to be seen as early front runners. However a strong challenge from the right-wing populist Reform Party under Nicole Faulkner led to many to discuss the possibility of the retention of a right-wing government of the NUP and Reform, despite worries that the Reform party was to extreme. The election saw a for the opposition Labour party, whose 127 seats and 43.94% share of the vote being the highest since the 1989 election. The NUP in comparison suffered its worst defeat ever with its seats dropping from 118 to 70 and getting only 24.34% of the vote. The NUP's coalition partners, the Social Credit party, saw a collapse in support failing to surpass the 4% threshold for proportional seats and retaining only 1 constituency seat. In contrast the Reform Party achieved one of the best results for a third party since the 1970's getting 54 seats and 18.85% of the vote. The Green-Left Movement retained their 13 seats but only made a single gains. Following the election Llewellwyn announced his intention to form a coalition government with the Green-Left Movement whilst both Clarkson and Social Credit leader Rhondri Mears who lost his seat announced their intentions to resign. Electoral process Rainier has since 1930 used an with a 4% . 118 members of parliament are elected in single-member districts whilst 148 are elected using regional . Seat calculation is conducted via the despite there being no mechanism. If parties win district seats but do not pass the 4% threshold they are not entitled to list seats. Seat distribution is based on the results from the party list vote rather than the district seats vote. Timetable Background Since the 2009 House of Councillors election the National Union Party under Andrew Clarkson has held government in a with the Social Credit Party (Socreds) where they had to deal with the economic fallout stemming from the . The of Diane Hall (2005-2009) had responded to the recession with whilst undertaking some belated welfare cuts and . The Clarkson government moved away from stimulus to undertake instead to avoid a bailout from the Conference of American States. This included a far-reaching privatisation programme and a series of unpopular spending cuts. The 2013 election was widely seen as a close race between the NUP and Labour, as economic growth returned albeit at a sluggish pace. The election saw Labour however fail to make serious gains as the NUP retained most of their seats, albeit with the Socreds losing much of theirs. Clarkson thus continued as Prime Minister albeit on a smaller mandate. A in 2014 however saw the economy enter a technical recession causing the government to approve of more spending cuts. This alongside the election of new Labour leader Alexander Llewellwyn resulted in a fall of support for the government. This was observed in several provincial elections - in 2015 Labour under defeated the Albertan National Union party which had won every election in that province since 1971. In 2016 , the centre-left Premier of won re-election with an increased majority as did the Labour premiers in Oregon and in Washington in 2016. Most prominently in 2017 the centre-right provincial government of in British Columbia lost its majority and was ousted from office on the 29th June by a Labour-Green Left coalition. Cash-for-Votes scandal In late November 2016 it came to light that the National Union Party had over £300 million ($180,690,236.70) in public finances over a period of five years to pay for various political party campaigns under the guise of using it to promote federal projections abroad. The NUP was able to do so due to loopholes in public finance laws that allowed them to redirect money from provincial to federal governments without declaring the total sum of money received to the federal government. The details of the embezzlement was leaked during the 2016 presidential election and quickly became known as the "Cash for Votes" scandal. The Cash-for-votes scandal was the most serious Rainian political scandal in over a decade since the TriMet scandal and one the biggest corruption scandals ever in Rainian history. Despite calls for the Prime Minister's resignation and an early election Andrew Clarkson refused to resign stating he had no knowledge of the affair, blaming provincial governments for deliberately fudging public finances. As a result of the scandal the NUP recorded a sharp drop in popularity. As a result of the scandal a cross-party investigation has been launched to investigate misuse of public finances with all major parties pledging to examine the issue. Issues Economy Immigration and multiculturalism Environmental policy Foreign affairs Parties standing 11 parties were registered to run on the party list in the election and theoretically get a seat in the House of Councillors. However only five parties were expected to either win constituency seats or pass the 4% . All parties have top candidates which are seen as "prime ministerial candidates". Campaign National Union Party The NUP entered the campaign trailing the Labour Party by 20 points, being on average only 5 points ahead of the Reform party. Despite concerns over his personal unpopularity (with his net approval rating dropping to –34%) Andrew Clarkson fought his third campaign as NUP leader, hiring to serve as a campaign adviser. Clarkson launched the campaign on the 7th July in where he promised that a NUP government would ensure economic stability, lower general taxation and preserving "Rainian values" such as enforcing a ban, cutting foreign aid and halving total immigration to Rainier. The campaign opening was seen as a move to the right by some commentators being perceived as an attempt to appeal to Reform Party voters. leader and Prime Minister Andrew Clarkson at the first NUP rally.]]Under Crosby's direction the NUP increased their presence on spreading posts primarily criticising the Labour party and the possibility of a . The NUP's campaign cost £32,144,179 ($19,549,447.47), the highest of all campaigns. On the 10th July Clarkson announced that once the budget deficit was eliminated the next NUP government would drastically increase infrastructure spending to modernise Rainier's transport systems. In the same speech Clarkson stated a NUP government would implement a points-based immigration system in regards to all migration and would hold a referendum on CAS membership if the CAS spoke out against such policies. The NUP's manifesto was launched on the 14th July 2017. Some of the key campaign promises made included plans to introduce of the postal and telecommunication networks, cut income, corporation, capital gains and goods and services tax, eliminate the budget deficit by the next parliament, clamping down on benefit fraud, bring down net migration to below 20,000 and increase total spending on defence. As a result to economic slowdowns the NUP proposed austerity and increasing the export of "ethical oil". The manifesto stated that Rainier would take in no refugees from Syria and called for greater security operations against including labelling it at as currency manipulator. The NUP also ruled out voting in favour of but were ambiguous on whether they would hold a referendum on the matter. Whilst admitting global warming existed the NUP called for market based solutions to the problem and stated they would never impose a carbon tax whilst also defending the practice of . The manifesto was said by the Daily Gazette as being the NUP's most right-wing to date and a victory for the " " in the party. On the 20th July Clarkson stated that the NUP would preferably enter another with the Social Credit party and ruled out a German-style with the Labour party. He did not however discount the possibility of a coalition with the Reform party. The NUP campaign had several controversies. MP for Helena Dirk Bailey was criticised when at a town hall he called for a "final solution" against Muslims, causing Bailey to be removed as a NUP candidate. Minister of Industry and Development Thomas Pullen also caused controversy when he criticised women for "not giving birth enough", which were considered to be sexist comments. Labour party Labour entered the election with a 20% lead over the NUP with leader Alexander Llewellwyn (who had only become leader following his predecessor Nigel Elystan resigning upon his election as President in 2016) having the highest net approval rating of all party leaders. As such they were widely seen as the front runners in the election. The Labour campaign was based around the personal popularity of Llewellwyn, with the campaign around him being described as "presidential" in character. The presidential nature of Labour's campaign was criticised especially by the NUP as focusing more on style over substance. The total spending by the Labour campaign was £25,779,140 ($15,678,357.91). Labour reportedly looked to their which had netted that party 40% of the vote as inspiration for campaigning and policy prescriptions. Labour's first rally, held on the 5th July in emphasised the "social fracture" that had emerged under 8 years of NUP rule and promised to increase spending to ensure a "brighter future for young people". Llewellwyn stated the party would take a "flexible approach" to eliminate the deficit intending to reduce it but not at the expense of investment Labour believed was necessary. Llewellwyn also promised a pragmatic approach to economic policy, stating a Labour government would neither privatise nor nationalise any industry. leader Alexander Llewellwyn launching the Labour manifesto.]] Labour was the first party to release their manifesto doing so on the 9th July. The manifesto promised to boost spending in education, health and infrastructure, eliminate tuition fees, reduce unemployment and build more affordable homes. Labour also confirmed it would raise the top rate of income tax and introduce two new tax brackets but reduce income taxation overall; they stated they would also raise the financial transaction and capital gains taxes and decrease corporation tax. In response to the economic slowdown following the Labour proposed and a diversification of the economy away from oil and gas exports. The manifesto also promised to pass same-sex marriage through parliament, legalise and limit immigration overall. Labour's environmental policy however was unclear - whilst expressing a desire to phase out nuclear energy and increase investment in renewable energy Labour neither committed to nor ruled out imposing . The Labour manifesto also called for a reorientation in foreign relations, most prominently promote better relations with and as well as re-examine Rainier's relationship with . However Labour also promised to maintain close cooperation with and promote policies that would limit . Labour's manifesto was overall seen as a product of the of the party, with significant shifts to the left on education policy but a move to the right on immigration policy. Llewellwyn stated Labour would be open to forming a with the Green-Left Movement or a with the Green-Left Movement and the Social Credit party. The only party Labour explicitly ruled out entering government with was the Reform party stating there were to many differences between the parties. Social Credit party The Social Credit party (Socreds) after serving four years in government with the NUP had declined in the polls, being well below the 4% . Due to the low poll ratings before the election Social Credit leader and Minister of the Treasury Frank Jackson resigned on the 12th March with Minister of Social Welfare and Labour Rhondri Mears replacing him on the 28th March. Mears promised to shift the party from a sole focus on to reconnecting with its rural base, shifting the party's social rhetoric to the right in order to appeal to Socred voters who were considering voting for the Reform party. Mears however defended the NUP-Socred coalition as providing the country with fiscal discipline and avoiding a bailout from the CAS. The Socreds total campaign spending was £15,679,283 ($9,535,826.67). The first rally held by the Socreds on the 6th July with Mears calling for a "unabashedly pro-consumer, pro-business" policy, stating the NUP only favoured big business and Labour's policies would damage the economy. Mears instead advocated for lower taxation, and as well as increasing education and healthcare spending. Mears suggested more as a solution to deal with raising health and education costs. The Socred manifesto released on the 19th July was a move to the right for the party that opposed the legalisation of same-sex marriage and , called for tighter abortion laws and a more comprehensive law and order policy. However the manifesto also saw a firm entrenchment of the Socred's policies they have promoted since their inclusion in the NUP government including lowering the capital gains and income taxes, privatising and ensuring a "bonfire of regulations". Nevertheless the Socreds continued their traditional support for increased rural subsidies and ruled out joining the (TPP) on the basis it would hurt Rainian rural workers', championing policies. The Socreds stated they would not enter a coalition with the Green-Left Movement and Reform Party but would be open to both joining a Labour or National Union led government. However the Socreds said they were closer to Clarkson's NUP than the Labour party. Reform party leader Nicole Faulkner campaigning in her west Montana constituency]] The Reform party entered the campaign with the intention to become the largest party of the , either leading a right-wing coalition or as the main opposition party. Previously a minor party stagnating wages, rising immigration and disillusionment with the mainstream parties led to the Reform party to strike a cord that resulted in their poll ratings to increase steadily over the last parliament. The Reform Party's campaign cost £17,920,215 ($10,846,274.66) Under party leader Nicole Faulkner the Reform party has moved from their previous position to endorse a position that called for on the one hand a much more and larger as well as endorsing , in particular and . Faulkner also dropped much of the Reform party's stances instead endorsing with and a foreign policy. Political scientists said that Faulkner's changes to the Reform party meant it shifted away from resembling right-liberal parties such as the and to more resembling European parties such as the . The Reform Party launched their manifesto on the 13th July in the city of . The Reform Party's 2017 manifesto was a notable departure from their previous ones, calling for tax cuts for lower income families, re-nationalisation of water and power grids and boosting spending in health and welfare. The Reform party also pledged to lower the retirement age and reducing tuition fees for medicine & science by raising fees for humanities instead. In foreign policy the Reform Party's foreign policy shifted from neoconservatism and hawkish support for Israel for better relations with Russia (including recognising the Russian invasion and occupation of ) and taking a firm line against . On some other issues however the Reform party followed an orthodox line, calling for an end to " ", advocating for a net migration target of zero by the end of the next parliament and outright banning immigration from , Hani, Tanjung and , opposing same-sex marriage, restricting abortion rights, opposing legalisation of soft drugs, clamping down on the sale of porn and endorsing the appellation of Rainier as a Christian nation. The Reform party also advocated for a referendum to restore the British monarchy to Rainier and challenged the scientific consensus on saying the had not affected the economy adversely and that more oil drilling was needed. The Reform Party stated they would not fundamentally oppose a coalition with either of the main two parties, singling out the Green-Left as the only party they were unwilling to work with. They did however demand that any prospective coalition must promise to substantially limit immigration and allow the Reform party to take the post of Prime Minister. Green-Left Movement The Green-Left Movement went into the election to increase their seat share and form government with the Labour party in a as occurred from 2005-2009 under Diane Hall. The Green-Left's campaign was the least expensive of the major parties spending £9,175,566 ($5,572,093.28) due to the fact that the Green-Left Movement only takes individual donations and public funds for political parties. leader Yasmin Casimir at a rally in ]] The Green-Left Movement launched their campaign on the 3rd July when leader Yasmin Casimir pledged that in government the Green-Left Movement would fight for environmental policies (such as greater use of renewable energy, the ending of the "myth of ethical oil" and a phase out of nuclear energy) and pro-worker policies (such as more rights for trade unions and raising the ). Casimir stated the had damaged the Rainian economy moreso than help it and that as a result Rainier should diversify its economy away from oil production for economic and environmental reasons. The Green-Left Movement's manifesto was released on the 11th July. Described by the Daily Gazette as being an approval of " " the manifesto called for increases in the top rates of income tax, capital gains, financial transaction and corporation tax and the imposition of a . They also proposed eliminating tuition fees, increasing spending on education, welfare, healthcare and infrastructure, re-nationalising sections of the health sector that is privatised, and clamping down on . The Green-Left Movement also called for the legalisation of same-sex marriage and soft drugs, combating and maintaining Rainier's policy of multicultralism. In terms of foreign policy, the Green-Left Movement called for a "human rights based approach" working with countries such as , Sierra and member states of the to promote human rights abroad and severing ties with . They also called for the recognition of as a sovereign state and disavowed military interventionism. Despite calling for a more human rights based approach Green-Left said they would also seek to mend relations with which had been poor under the Clarkson government. The Green-Left Movement also promised to reduce carbon emissions and redirect subsides from the fossil fuel industry to renewable energies instead. The Green-Left Movement stated they would not enter coalition nor provide supply to the three parties of the right (National Union, Reform and Social Credit) and would only support a Labour government if they were given significant policy concessions on areas such as the economy and the environment. The Green-Left Movement entered some controversy when one of its candidates, Brittany Rudd, called an " ". NUP leader Andrew Clarkson criticised the Green-Left Movement for tolerating and called for the parties public funding to be stripped from it. Leaders debates Controversies Role of the president campaigning for the Labour party.]] Although not required by the constitution, the President of Rainier is usually seen as being and not involved in day-to-day politics. However, in 2016 a new president Nigel Elystan was elected on a platform to be an "activist president" having been elected whilst still serving as Labour party leader and so during the campaign actively campaigned for Labour. Elystan said that a vote for the National Union or Reform parties would be a "disaster" for the country and pledged as President to block moves that "did not further the interests of the Rainian people" if the NUP or Reform party were in government. Elystan's campaigning for Labour and criticism of the NUP/Reform parties led to criticism from many ends of the political spectrum. Minister of Domestic Affairs Mary Towers stated that Elystan was going against the constitutional limits of his office. Elystan dismissed this notion stating there was nothing in the constitution that required him to be impartial. Endorsements Opinion polls Party approval Seat projections Preferred prime minister Exit poll An was released at 10PM when the last ballot was cast. The poll confirmed pollsters predictions that the Labour party would get over 40% of the vote and that the NUP would suffer large losses. Results The election saw a landslide victory for the opposition Labour party, which achieved 43.94% of the vote and 127 seats - its best result since 1981. Labour performed especially well in the coastal provinces of British Columbia, Oregon and Cascadia almost sweeping the city of . The National Union Party recorded its worst result ever in its history, getting only 24.34% of the vote and 70 seats. The Socreds also recorded their worst result failing to pass the 4% threshold for the first time since 1930 - however they won a single constituency seat (Josephine) meaning they returned a single member to the House of Councillors. The Reform party meanwhile achieved its best result in it history, winning a majority of votes in Idaho and becoming the third largest party with 18.85% of the vote and 54 seats - the best result for a third party since the 1995 election. The Green-Left Movement saw a small drop in its share of the vote from 4.99% to 4.87% - however it retained its 13 seats getting a single gain. The collapse of the Socreds meant Green-Left went from the fifth to fourth largest party in the House of Councillors. The NUP's vote share was the worst for a sitting government in over 20 years, being lower than Labour's 27.80% in 2009 but ahead of Labour's 1995 vote share of 17.99%. Labour's 5 million votes were the most received by a party since the 6 million votes gained by the NUP in 1995. }} }} Aftermath Government formation Following the election Labour leader Alexander Llewellwyn hailed the result as proof that the electorate endorsed change in a progressive direction and stated Labour was "ready for government". Llewellwyn noted the two main progressive parties in parliament - Labour and the Green-Left Movement - held a parliamentary majority and vowed to create some sort of . As such Prime Minister Andrew Clarkson announced his governments resignation an hour after the election result was announced. In accordance with the constitution Llewellwyn as the leader of the largest party was offered by President Elystan to form a . As such on the 28th August Labour's Chief Whip Gavin Freeman met with his Green-Left Movement counterpart Damien Herman for talks to either form a (reportedly favoured by Green-Left) or enter a more flexible agreement (reportedly favoured by Labour). On the 2nd September Freeman stated that Labour was exploring a confidence and supply agreement over a coalition government. Green-Left leaders stated that their key demands would be the imposition of a form of carbon pricing and elimination of tuition fees. On the 9th September Llewellwyn announced that the Labour party and Green-Left Movement had reached agreement on several key issues and that the latter was willing to provide the government with confidence and supply on key issues ranging from education, healthcare and climate policy. A government consisting entirely of Labour ministers was sworn in the next day with Llewellwyn as Prime Minister. Party leadership changes Following the announcement of the election results Clarkson announced his immediate resignation from the post of National Union Party taking responsibility for the defeat. The NUP subsequently named Mary Towers as interim leader until a leadership election could be held. Social Credit leader Rhondri Mears also announced his resignation - the lack of a Socred caucus however meant that its sole remaining MP, Damian Foot, became leader. Category:Rainier Category:Elections